by Sri Handoyo Mukti
Abstract
In the process of regional development plans carried out analysis of various aspects which include: economic, social, environmental and space requirements. Analysis activities are generally carried out by experts in their field without considering the linkages between aspects were analyzed. This paper described a model showing the linkages between aspects in the planning of regional development. On the economic aspect, linkages between sectors and across regions are translated using interregional input-output method based on the data matrix IRIO issued by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). On social aspects, population growth, the Human Development Index, and the unemployment rate is simulated as a result of economic development. On environmental and spatial aspects, the model will simulate the impact of economic development on water availability and reduced green open space, increasing land requirements and land stock in each land class. The model attempted to simulate scenarios of regional development based on increased development investment and will be evaluated based on development indicators in the economic, social, environmental and spatial.
Keywords: system dynamics, simulation, modeling, sustainable regional development, policy scenario planning, policy assessment.
*) Expert in Regional Development and Environmental Modeling
1. Background
To produce a sustainable regional development plan, the integrated analysis of the aspects that influence needs to be done. Currently the planning process is always done in partial and fragmented sectors of the economy in a rigid manner. In addition, changes in the current strategic environment resulting projection analysis using the statistical approach becomes less appropriate, because to achieve the development targets that proclaimed requires a variety of alternative scenarios to achieve regional development. To be able to choose the strategic scenario needed an integrated analysis of different aspects to measure the performance of each scenario. The method of analysis will be discussed in this paper is a method of System Dynamics. The problems of regional development dynamics formulated in the systems dynamic model, where the alternative solution scenarios are simulated to determine the performance impact of each scenario were developed.
2. System Conceptualization
Conceptualizing the problem can be described in a causal loop diagram of Regional Development Planning (RDP) as shown in Figure 2. describe the behavior of regional development based on aspects of economic, social, environmental and land (spatial). For the economic aspect (which is limited by the red box), to achieve the target of economic growth (desired economic growth), it takes an investment that must be implemented to achieve the economic targets (desired investments). Desired investment is not always realized to be an investment where it is closely related to the aspect of Natural Resources (including the Land). From the realized investment, economic conditions that occur will have an impact on the environmental conditions where environmental conditions will provide feedback that limits the economic conditions that occurred. The actual economic condition is not directly felt the community, but there is a delay. The economy is perceived by the public will affect on the social welfare conditions that will provide feedback to the economic conditions that occur due to changes in productivity (increase or decrease).
Figure 1. Causal Loop Diagram of Regional Development Planning (RDP) Model
If we look at the loops that is formed of a causal link above, economic growth scenario that proclaimed should become the driving engine for the local economy and should be leverage the economy that occurred (positive loop), but in the land, environmental and social aspects there is a negative loop that will limiting economic growth that occurred. Therefore, the scenario development area only see economic growth is not enough but need to be addressed in an integrated aspect of land (push and limiting the regional development), environmental aspects and social aspects of the population because these aspects are interrelated to one another. All aspect in the systems is grouped in the following sub models:
Economy Sub Model
Available accurate and sufficient data to assess the linkages between economic sectors and between regions is based on the BPS survey results published in the interregional Input-Output (IRIO) table in 2005. Sub-Economic model outlines nine major sectors: Agriculture, Mining and Quarrying, Manufacturing, Electricity gas and water supply, Building (Construction), Hotel and Restaurant Trade, Transportation and Communications, Finance leasing and corporate services, other services. Sub-economic model can be derived from the existing nine sectors specific to a region in accordance with specific local potential.
Social Sub Model
Social sub model describing the dynamics of population growth, improvement of the HDI value and increased productivity that will reduce the number of unemployed
Population growth occurs due to an increased birth rate is higher than the level of health, as well as the in-migration is higher than out-migration. Increased prosperity in developing countries will result directly in increased birth and mortality that can lead to population explosion if not controlled by the family planning program, although in developed countries, increasing prosperity will actually decrease the number of residents.
Environmental Sub Model
Sub model of the environment, especially for analysis at the regional level that is still relevant to be discussed is related to: availability of water and the availability of green open space.
Water resource model can be divided into two: a model that describes the water demand and a model
Land Use Sub Model
Land use model developed that is used to describe
• Land demand growth, land allocation and land use (Demand)
• Land use and land function conversion (land conversion)
Growth needs of developed land are the result of population growth (residential land) and economic growth (other land).
Figure 2. Flow Diagram of Land Demand and Conversion
3. Model Validation
Calibration and validation of the model in systems dynamic could be done through various methods, although in this study it can take in 2 methods, that is:
1. Comparing base structure of model with base structure in the real world.
2. Comparing the behavior pattern of simulations result with observations or data.
4. Result of Simulation on Kalimantan and Sulawesi Region
a. Kalimantan Region
- Economic: investment acceleration will give leverage in economic growth in the future. From the graphics we can see that high economic growth will be exist in 10 until 20 years, after that, growth will be back on the normal condition.
- Social Welfare: although the impact on economic growth will be exist temporarily, but it will improve social welfare as we can see in the graphics. So in 10 until 20 year in the future the condition of social welfare will be much better then today and it will encourage local economic initiative to keep the economic growth continuously.
- Environment: As consequences of the high economic growth, the environmental condition will be decreased. Government has to keep the environment equilibrium to mitigate the risk of natural disaster through creating the environment rehabilitation and conservation program and involving people in the community development project.
- Spatial Condition: Conversion of the land use will be existing from the forest to agricultural usage especially in palm oil plantation. Areas for industrialization are available and sufficient but the resources to support it will need the broad and extensive farming area
b. Sulawesi Region
- Economic: the impact of investment acceleration in Sulawesi will be higher than in Kalimantan. It will be happen because the linkage between economic sectors is more stringer than in Kalimantan, so the investment in one economic sector will stimulate to the others.
- Social Welfare: Same as Kalimantan, accelerating investment will give an impact on social welfare.
- Environment: Same as Kalimantan, high economic growth will influence on the environmental degradation like pollution, decreasing land forest and protected forest and water availability.
- Spatial Condition: The limitation of suitable agriculture land area in Sulawesi will push conversion of forest and protected forest to the farming usage. To control this situation, government has to strictly apply zoning regulation.
5. References
Sterman, John D. (2000), Business Dynamics : Systems Thinking and Modelling for Complex World, McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.
Tasrif, Muhammad (2005), Analisis Kebijakan Menggunakan Model System Dynamics, Program Magister Studi Pembangunan ITB, Bandung
The World Bank (2009), Laporan Pembangunan Dunia : Menata Ulang Geografi Indonesia, Penerbit Salemba Empat, Jakarta
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